Tejashree Anant Salvi
INTRODUCTION
An endemic disease outbreak is one that occurs regularly but is limited to a specific geographic area. Therefore, the disease spread and rates are predictable. Malaria, for example, is endemic in certain countries and regions. Rather, the optimistic opinion is that a sufficient number of people will benefit from immune protection against vaccination and natural infections, resulting in less transmission and significantly less COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, even if the virus continues to circulate.
The expected continued spread of SARS-CoV-2 contrasts with the first round of SARS in 2003 and the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 when public health measures eventually stopped the spread and brought both outbreaks to an end. While the viruses and contexts differ significantly, this comparison highlights the critical need to improve our global public health infrastructure and surveillance systems to monitor for and respond to the inevitable next potential pandemic virus. Because viruses spread where there are enough susceptible people and enough contact among them to sustain spread, it's difficult to predict when COVID-19 will become endemic. It is determined by factors such as the strength and duration of the vaccination and natural immunity protection infection, our patterns of contact with one another that allows for virus transmission, and the virus's transmissibility. Due to the heterogeneous responses to COVID-19 around the world, some with “zero COVID” policies, others with limited and largely variable vaccine availability and uptake—the patterns will most likely differ significantly from what we saw with the other pandemics.
Omicron Status in the World
Certain characteristics of the Omicron variant, such as its global spread and a large number of mutations, suggest it could have a significant impact on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the World Health Organization's chief (WHO). With the Omicron variant now present in 57 countries.
Current status of Omicron in India.
India has recorded 122 cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus in 24 hours. Maharashtra has the highest number of Omicron cases in the country (108), followed by Delhi (79), Gujarat (43), Telangana (38), Kerala (37), Tamil Nadu (34), Karnataka (31), and Rajasthan (22). States like Haryana, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh have reported 4 cases each; Jammu and Kashmir and Bengali occidental 3 each, Uttar Pradesh (2) and Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Ladakh on each. Omicron state and union territories recovered patients Maharashtra (42), Delhi (23), Gujarat( 5), Kerala(1), Karnataka(15), Rajasthan(19), Haryana(2), Andhra Pradesh(1), Jammu and Kashmir(3), West Bengal(1), Uttar Pradesh(2), Ladakh(1).
How omicron and other variants changing the picture of the pandemic
The SARSCoV2 virus's omicron version, which was discovered, only a few weeks ago, is expected to dominate COVID-19 cases around the world. It's a surprising new chapter in the pandemic narrative, one that has countries scrambling to get ready. In regions where omicron has spread quickly, such as South Africa and the United Kingdom, COVID-19 cases have doubled every three days or fewer. This includes persons who have already been infected with COVID- 19 or who have been immunized against it. As a result, Omicron has the potential to worsen the Covid-19 pandemic. It may or may not happen. It's unclear whether these characteristics will cause hospitalizations and deaths to reach all-time highs in the United States and elsewhere, but epidemiological models indicate that omicron will take a heavy toll this winter. However, the omicron wave in South Africa looks to have peaked, with no serious casualties. Omicron’s severity is also determined by how people react to it, particularly when it comes to immunization and booster doses. Researchers are working feverishly to identify the variation and predict its next stages, but it's proving challenging. Scientists hope that by looking into the genetics of the variant, they will be able to learn more about where it came from and ideally avoid the next one by covering everyone's surprise.
What is the pandemic calendar?
According to the report, there is a good chance that the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 will be followed by a series of smaller waves that will occur throughout the summer and then consistently over a one-two year period, gradually diminishing some time in 2021. The second
scenario suggests that the first wave is followed by a larger wave in the winter of 2020 and one or smaller subsequent wave in 2021, similar to the 1918-19 pandemic. Or there may be a “slow burn” of the current transmission and the appearance of cases with no discernible wave pattern. However, the team emphasizes that even after the pandemic has passed, it is likely that SARS- CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the human population and will synchronize to a seasonal pattern with decreasing severity over time, as other less pathogenic coronaviruses and previous pandemic influenza viruses have done.
Scientists say that as the global race for vaccines intensifies, the course of the pandemic could be influenced by a vaccine, but it will likely not be available until at least some time in 2021, and there is little knowledge of what challenges could arise during development that would cause the timelines to be pushed back. Another global group of researchers made similar observations in the journal Science last month, emphasizing the need to maintain social distancing intermittently until 2022, as infections could increase once restrictions are lifted. “Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur,” according to the report.
Conclusion
According to recent studies, the COVID-19 pandemic is here to stay and may hit in waves over the next two years, with hotspots emerging in various geographical areas. Nobody knows how this virus will behave. However, based on current evidence and previous influenza pandemics, it appears that the pandemic will last 18-24 months. “It will not be stopped until 60-70 percent of the population is immune,” the team said, urging governments to prepare for a worst-case scenario, which could include lack of vaccine availability or herd immunity.
Reference
1. https://www.vox.com/22846696/omicron-covid-19-variant-virology-mutation-vaccine
What makes the omicron variant so strange and surprising?
2. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/omicron-cases-in-india-surge-to-415-check-state-wise-full-list-maharashtra-delhi-gujarat-tamil-nadu-andhra-pradesh-kerala-karnataka-rajasthan-west-bengalodishachandigarhuttarakhandup-11640406521916.html
Omicron cases in India surge to 415; Check state- wise full list
3. https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron
Update on Omicron
4. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid-19-may-be-here-to-stay-could-hit-in-waves-over-next-two-years/amp-11588585820842.html&ved=2ahUKEwiEwaCP2fz0AhVo_XMBHZ7yD9MQFnoECCIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2oEkI488nYxPzg0GgexFDT
Covid-19 may be here to stay, could hit in waves over next two years