While there are some signs of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, the rating agency Icra warned on Wednesday that it has yet to achieve the durability anticipated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precondition to policy transmission. The agency forecasts a 6-6.5 percent year-on-year increase in real GDP in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4% in Q2 FY2022). The RBI is also expected to maintain the status quo in its upcoming monetary policy review in February. Aditi Nayar, the firm's Chief Economist, stated that economic activity rebounded in December 2021, even though numerous industries continued to underperform in October 2021. While there are indicators that the economic recovery is broadening in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, the rating agency Icra warned on Wednesday that it has yet to attain the durability that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects as a prerequisite for policy transmission. In the third quarter of FY2022, the agency anticipates a 6-6.5 percent year-on-year increase in real GDP (+8.4 percent in Q2 FY2022). In its upcoming monetary policy review in February, the RBI is likewise expected to maintain the status quo. Even though many industries continued to underperform in October 2021, Aditi Nayar, the firm's Chief Economist, indicated that economic activity improved in December 2021. According to the analysis, nine of the 15 high-frequency indicators in December 2021 underperformed the growth witnessed in October 2021. In December 2021, FASTag toll collections and retail payments reached all-time highs, while monthly mobility for retail and recreation surpassed the baseline period for the first time since the start of COVID-19, according to the report. Following the re-imposition of state-by-state limitations to halt the third wave of COVID-19, early data for January 2022 is projected to be dismal, according to Nayar.
top of page
bottom of page