India’s central bank is set to stick with baby steps to policy normalization, as it is seized by the need to anchor borrowing costs for the government in addition to supporting a durable recovery in Asia’s third-largest economy. Those objectives will likely make the benchmark interest-rate a sideshow at this week’s monetary policy review, which is due Thursday. The Reserve Bank of India will instead likely raise the reverse repurchase rate to cut down inflation-inducing liquidity in the banking system -- a signal that it’s committed to return policy to pre-pandemic settings. But the key takeaway from Governor Shaktikanta Das’s address at 10 a.m. in Mumbai on Thursday will be how the RBI plans to support the government’s record Rs 14.95 lakh crore ($200 billion) borrowing plan in a market where demand is flagging. Bond traders will look for clarity from Das on specific steps the central bank plans to keep the government’s borrowing costs down. The RBI last year used a so-called Government Securities Acquisition Program to buy Rs 2.2 lakh crore of debt between April and September. The program has since been halted, and Indian banks -- the largest purchasers of sovereign paper -- are already overstocked. Markets would be looking forward to assurance and support from RBI to ensure that the massive borrowing program goes through smoothly,” said Anand Nevatia, fixed-income fund manager at Trust Mutual Fund. “While the RBI may not announce all measures in the forthcoming policy, markets would expect it to announce a purchase program or open-market operations over the course of the year. The yield on the benchmark debt has surged nearly 40 basis points so far this year amid a global drop in the price of bonds. The high borrowing number in the budget as well as absence of any steps to facilitate global bond index inclusion have further roiled the domestic markets with auctions facing weak demand.
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